Education Data from CtSDC

  1. School District Enrollment Projections (January 2009)
  2. CT School Enrollment Shrinking 17%, 2004 - 2020 (June 2008)
  3. Next Steps: Preparing a Quality Workforce (April 2008)
  4. Education Impacts the Economy in New England (June 2006)






School District Enrollment Projections

     During 2008, CtSDC's Manager and Demographer, Orlando Rodriguez, prepared several Enrollment Projections for Connecticut school districts, working from our expertise in population projections. CtSDC's primary analysis tool is called the Cohort Component Methodology , the analytical process recommended by the U.S. Census Bureau for population projections.

     In addition to the specific population data fields included in the Census' Projection formulas, CtSDC employs additional factors to provide additional insight into population trends: (1) Construction permits and/or Certificates of Occupancy (CO's), and (2) Economic Trends within the region and that part of the state.

     Rather than treat each town in isolation, CtSDC goes the additional distance to factor in the primary data sets for the towns on each subject town's borders. That is, we review the extended neighborhood, to confirm that a trend in the town under study is also active to some extent in the whole region.

     Here are links to several of the CtSDC 2008 studies:

  • Fairfield, where enrollment may have peaked in 2005 during the current cycle.
  • Region 15, where enrollment is experiencing a modest decline.
  • Rocky Hill, which experienced continued growth through 2007, possibly through 2009.
  • Thompson, where enrollment slowed after a 2005 spike.



Data in the News - Sept. 25, 2008

[Redding] Enrollment decline: Schools here mirror trend   (9/25/08)
At the moment, Region 9 (Joel Barlow High School, which has Easton and Redding students) is “trending up” in terms of enrollment because the decline in students won’t “catch up” until a few years from now.

It is estimated that among the three districts, the student population will reduce between the 2007-08 school year and 2015-16 by approximately 560 students.    The Redding Pilot

CT Public School Enrollment Shrinking 17%, 2004/5 to 2020/21

     Between 2006/7 and 2007/8, Connecticut's public schools reported a drop in enrollment of approximately 4,000 students for grades 1 through 12. A review of preliminary public school reports by the Connecticut State Data Center's Manager Orlando Rodriguez indicates that the 2007/8 school year marks the beginning of a long-term decline in the state's school age population.

     The loss of these 4,000 students is documented for each specific School District.

     We have also developed a table for Towns with the most growth and most decline, by Number and Percent, over just the last school year. Posted June 27, 2008.




Public School Enrollment change 2006/ to 2007/8


Regional District Enrollment change 2006/7 to 2007/8
     In the period from 2004/5 up to 2020/21, Connecticut public schools may see enrollment drop by approximately 90,000 students or a loss of 17% from 2004/5 peak enrollment.    Read our Press Release


Data in the News - June 23, 2008

Schools Won Inflated Grants
By overstating future enrollments, several CT school districts collected millions of dollars in excess state grants for school construction projects, state auditors have concluded.

Enrollment projections submitted by schools are a key factor in determining state reimbursements for school construction. The state covers up to 80 percent of those costs....

In a review prompted by a whistle blower complaint, the audit found the state had neither a uniform process for submiting enrollment projections nor a consistent process for reviewing projections. ”   
From the Hartford Business Journal


Education Impacts the Economy in New England

     Two related CCEA studies, New England, 2020 and Next Steps: Preparing a Quality Workforce examine and document the complex relationship among demographic trends, educational attainment, and workforce requirements.

     These reports describe the increasing numbers of minorities in more diverse higher education programs, the authors can still predict that almost all New England states will experience a decreasing proportion of their young population completing a bachelor's degree or higher.

     Given the potential for a reduction in trained workers entering the workplace, these researchers see an opportunity for public policy to offer some corrections.





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